The Impact of Inspection and Analysis Uncertainty on Reliability Prediction and Life Extension Strategy
نویسنده
چکیده
Life extension of high cost components until measurable damage is detected can result in marked re ductions in total cycle costs. The life extension strategy for turbine disks is based upon nondestructive inspection to detect defects, usage and stress analysis to define requirements, and fracture mechanics analysis and testing to evaluate the severity of any defects under future usage. Because there are uncertainties and inaccuracies in the inspection, analysis, testing and definition of past and future usage, the selection of the optimum life extension strategy requires quantitative evaluation of the costs and risks associated with each uncertainty during life extension. This paper summarizes recent developments in the basic methodologies necessary to quantify reliability. Specific examples are described which illustrate the concepts and payoff possible as well as the relative importance of inspection, analysis, and usage uncertainties on the optimum life extension strategy.
منابع مشابه
Reliability analysis of a robotic system using hybridized technique
In this manuscript, the reliability of a robotic system has been analyzed using the available data (containing vagueness, uncertainty, etc). Quantification of involved uncertainties is done through data fuzzification using triangular fuzzy numbers with known spreads as suggested by system experts. With fuzzified data, if the existing fuzzy lambda–tau (FLT) technique is employed, then the comput...
متن کاملApplication of J-BMS to Performance Evaluation and Remaining Life Prediction of an Existing RC Bridge
This paper describes a method of performance evaluation and remaining life prediction for an aged reinforced concrete (RC) T-girder bridge by J-BMS RC version via close visual inspection data, and also verifies the assessment results obtained as outputs from the Bridge Rating Expert System (RC-BREX) which is a subsystem of the J-BMS, to evaluate the effectiveness of the system. The Bridge Manag...
متن کاملIT - Business Strategic Alignment and Organizational Agility: The Moderating Role of Environmental Uncertainty
This study investigates the effect of IT-business strategic alignment on organizational agility by considering the effects of IT flexibility and IT capability on strategic alignment. Also this study investigates the moderating role of environmental uncertainty on the relationship between strategic alignment and organizational agility. This research is an applied research based on purpose and de...
متن کامل The Quantification of Uncertainties in Production Prediction Using Integrated Statistical and Neural Network Approaches: An Iranian Gas Field Case Study
Uncertainty in production prediction has been subject to numerous investigations. Geological and reservoir engineering data comprise a huge number of data entries to the simulation models. Thus, uncertainty of these data can largely affect the reliability of the simulation model. Due to these reasons, it is worthy to present the desired quantity with a probability distribution instead of a sing...
متن کاملFailure Probability and Remaining Life Assessment of Reheater Tubes
In this study, a real and significant industrial problem in a steam power plant was investigated. Reheater tubes in boilers are under the creep and the fireside corrosion mechanism that cause some of them to fail. Since the estimation of probability of failure (PoF) and remaining life (RL) is expensive and time consuming in the deterministic methods, in this work they were evaluated using struc...
متن کامل